Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 81706.133452 86240.403715 90771.504791 95635.936711 100707.088202 105834.576995 111407.562767
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 73774.587989 80685.901004 87784.849844 95611.289089 103987.260014 112672.171506 122347.701791
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 69025.581473 77630.797991 86661.447986 96823.922313 107919.925398 119645.794492 132952.232288
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 64330.530774 74100.346268 84542.199413 96497.736756 109771.647246 124021.318103 140438.359924
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 61689.176313 72529.096184 84296.754698 97969.075896 113363.889014 130108.482716 149643.302897
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 59117.726923 70815.965527 83696.425040 98860.509886 116151.146634 135178.391058 157623.674263
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 56372.671691 68723.579479 82504.128225 98928.387847 117875.033449 138949.370261 164062.811642
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 53799.991819 66682.965485 81237.494051 98784.563363 119246.505667 142233.055178 169881.915415
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 52601.806621 66166.489363 81661.627399 100532.955698 122748.991204 147923.116793 178449.913936
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 51501.515042 65693.529894 82075.474790 102217.664990 126141.170450 153469.550504 186858.903424
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 49996.473228 64659.094920 81759.161480 102981.303380 128406.596032 157678.800385 193704.373897
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 48134.919294 63113.671489 80761.971291 102867.654631 129578.348861 160567.698292 198979.074557
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 46609.980931 61951.755530 80211.121679 103290.569547 131411.495493 164282.145322 205307.932258
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44961.868122 60580.233317 79356.809218 103304.614490 132725.157890 167369.342646 210902.829539
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 44059.737682 60105.138510 79572.198039 104603.551227 135584.410477 172307.965010 218734.975975
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 42418.941357 58633.479035 78497.062306 104258.423165 136392.384757 174747.280879 223544.341585
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41779.994268 58416.736024 78969.773945 105824.129185 139547.531964 180039.753953 231836.074691
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40896.718347 57848.639927 78969.476131 106772.438236 141922.900374 184379.840616 238983.066523
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39667.420045 56786.451765 78302.917842 106844.655539 143178.602294 187331.582531 244428.532215
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 38402.719949 55636.613767 77486.637921 106691.682010 144123.584441 189882.470547 249375.422081
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 38069.193502 55711.294508 78242.963654 108551.164811 147618.008755 195612.834233 258292.253972
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37726.658176 55757.352026 78950.546236 110342.546639 151030.180411 201256.978112 267135.398888
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 36997.013894 55254.074754 78916.819042 111154.419178 153181.108340 205323.059385 274023.491689